Is Gen Z Opting Out of University?

The historic promise of higher education as a rite of passage for ambitious young adults has never been so much in doubt.

Photo: Elisa Ventur

---

In 2019 Generation Z was on track to become the best-educated generation in history, set to surpass even Millennials. Prior to the pandemic, the Pew Research Center found that 57 percent of 18-to-21-year-old Americans who had graduated high school were enrolled in some sort of post-secondary education, as compared with 52 percent of Millennials in 2003 and 43 percent of Generation X in 1987. Yet only three years later, there has been a striking decline in the number of students enrolling in college and university programs, and higher than usual dropout rates.

It is understandable that many individuals are postponing university enrolment until in-person classes resume. However, a survey conducted by ECMC Group found that between May 2020 and September 2021, more than one-quarter of Generation Zers have fundamentally reconsidered the importance of higher education. The study reports that for nearly one-third of respondents, the pandemic’s financial impact has reduced the appeal of pursuing a four-year degree. What this research suggests is that higher education is not only being “put on hold” due to the pandemic, but that our generation evinces declining enthusiasm for the educational enterprise as a whole.

One of the reasons that higher education has been faltering is that many members of Gen Z are looking at older cohorts and seeing the challenges that well-educated individuals continue to face in the highly competitive job market. The New York Times reported in 2015 that Millennials are the best-educated generation in postwar U.S. history, yet also the worst-paid. Millennials’ average earnings between 2009 and 2013 was US$33,880—the lowest since 1980. What this demonstrates is that Millennials did everything “right”—staying in school longer while being assured that this would benefit them in the long run. Yet after finishing their degrees, Millennials were hit by the harsh reality of unprecedented educational debt and the disappointment of being continually underpaid and overqualified for their jobs. This explains why only 39 percent of Millennials today believe that a university or college degree “​​lead[s] to a good job and higher lifetime earnings.”

Labour-market challenges for young people have been exacerbated by the pandemic. Jobs have become increasingly precarious. Younger cohorts have been disproportionately affected by lockdowns and other pandemic-related exigencies, becoming both more likely to work in high-risk jobs and more vulnerable to job loss. It is increasingly evident to young workers, arguably, that it doesn’t matter how many degrees you have when there’s little job security or upward mobility on offer. A Pew Research Center study found that fully one-half of Americans aged 18-23 in March 2020 reported that they or someone in their household had lost a job or taken a cut in pay due to pandemic policies. This number was higher than in any other postwar cohort. As one academic expert explained in a recent CTV News report, “[young individuals’] tenure is shorter, they’re newer to organizations, they’re also more likely to work precariously and in jobs that might be more affected by fluctuations in our economic landscape.” Fifty-nine percent of Gen Zers also report being more dependent on their families due to pandemic pressures. Many have been left with little economic choice but to move back home with their parents.

To make matters worse, university and college tuition fees continue to rise, making education increasingly less affordable. Parent Wise Canada reports, for example, that the cost of post-secondary education has outpaced inflation by nearly 3-to-1 over the last decade. Since 2016 tuition fees have risen 40 percent. Educational inflation on this scale leaves the average Canadian student with a debt of $26,000 by the time they finish their four-year degree. Global News reports that 77 percent of Canadian graduates have regrets about the money they spent while in school. The truth is that the attainment of a post-secondary degree or diploma is considered to be a societal norm, yet it has increasingly become a luxury for low-income students who are struggling to subsist.

Even when Gen Zers graduate with four-year degrees, this credential is often not enough to provide access to jobs with decent pay. Less than one-third of American college graduates with student loans report that they are living comfortably. One study conducted in the U.S. found that 40 percent of new and recent graduates are underemployed when they enter their first job, two-thirds are still underemployed five years later, and fully half remain underemployed after a decade in the labour force. Oren Cass, executive director of American Compass, states that “For every high-school student who graduates college and finds a job that leverages her degree, four fall short: They either never enroll in college, drop out, or graduate and wind up underemployed.” As a recent graduate myself, I find these statistics disheartening. I have always been told that hard work pays off. Yet after spending countless hours doing homework and dedicating four years of my life to a university degree, I am less convinced than ever that the grass is greener on the other side.

Academic credential inflation means that, increasingly, a bachelor’s degree isn’t enough to ensure access to “good” jobs. In 1970, only 26 percent of middle-class American workers had education beyond high school. Yet almost 60 percent of all jobs in the US today require higher education. Due to credential inflation and the increasingly dog-eat-dog competitiveness of the entry-level job market, a bachelor’s degree is becoming passé. Employers now have the luxury of demanding that job applicants hold at least a master's degree.

Many Generation Zers are looking to other career pathways that promise faster career advancements and on-the-job training such as apprenticeships, boot camps, and so-called microcredentials. For example, Jonathan Finkelstein, chief executive of Credly, a digital credentialing network, reports that short-term-credential class enrollments have increased 70 percent during the pandemic. Many critics of traditional higher education argue, in fact, that innovation, creativity and hands-on experience cannot be taught in conventional classrooms. Little wonder that so many more alluring—and cost-effective—alternatives to traditional postsecondary education have proliferated recently.

The pandemic appears to have had the effect among many young people of recalibrating their place in North American society—and not for the better. I continue to believe that there is an important place for post-secondary education, and I am grateful for all that I have learned and the opportunities that university has afforded. A four-year degree remains an incredible accomplishment, one that demonstrates dedication, commitment and ambition. But school is also hard work. It is exhausting, stressful and challenging—and the pandemic has only intensified these challenges.

A university degree is now widely understood by practical young people not merely as intellectually self-affirming, but as a credential whose currency must be calculated as return on time sacrificed and money invested. If students and especially graduates do not see such returns, then the historic promise of higher education as a rite of passage for young adults will be undermined gravely, and perhaps even irrevocably.